Predictable performance is suboptimal, and what it means for model routing
3 judges. Scored by all three judges. Only the day’s top stories get the claim check. How far stories are checked
Researchers at the Max Planck Institute for Intelligent Systems argue that a language model's errors are predictable beyond its own confidence mainly when the model is suboptimal, so routing systems that use separate performance predictors gain most on weaker models.
Score
0.67total under rubric v2.0
- Significance0.60
- Reader interest0.69
- Audience breadth0.52
- Practical relevance0.64
- Substantiated0.88
- Technical depth0.93
- New information0.86
- Counts against: Promotional0.03
- Counts against: Overclaim0.19
Each judge’s answer per question (0–1), their mean and spread, and what the question adds to the score (weight × mean).
| Question | Judge 1 | Judge 2 | Judge 3 | Mean | Spread | Weight | Contribution (weight times mean) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Significance | 0.63 | 0.45 | 0.72 | 0.60 | 0.27 | +0.25 | +0.150 |
| Reader interest | 0.60 | 0.60 | 0.88 | 0.69 | 0.28 | +0.20 | +0.139 |
| Audience breadth | 0.59 | 0.40 | 0.58 | 0.52 | 0.19 | +0.10 | +0.052 |
| Practical relevance | 0.66 | 0.55 | 0.72 | 0.64 | 0.17 | +0.15 | +0.096 |
| Substantiated | 0.99 | 0.80 | 0.86 | 0.88 | 0.19 | +0.10 | +0.088 |
| Technical depth | 0.97 | 0.85 | 0.96 | 0.93 | 0.12 | +0.10 | +0.093 |
| New information | 0.89 | 0.70 | 0.98 | 0.86 | 0.28 | +0.10 | +0.086 |
| Promotional | 0.04 | 0.03 | 0.01 | 0.03 | 0.03 | −0.15 | −0.004 |
| Overclaim | 0.30 | 0.20 | 0.08 | 0.19 | 0.22 | −0.15 | −0.029 |
| Sum of contributions | +0.671 | ||||||
| Claim-check penalty | 0.000 | ||||||
| Total, as published | 0.671 | ||||||
Spread is the highest minus the lowest judge answer. marks a spread above 0.40: the judges disagree, and the story is marked contested.
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Elsewhere
Elsewhere: HN —
Recorded for context only, checked 24 Oct 2026, 08:54 UTC. It played no part in the ranking.